marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
805 PM PDT Mon 21 may 2012
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The latest model guidance continues to indicate that low pres
will cross the pz5 waters on Tue. The guidance is still
indicating that minimal gales are possible in association with
this low...especially in the NW flow behind the center. Farther
S...high pres is still expected to strengthen W of the pz6
waters on Tue while a low pres trof develops along the coast of
srn California. Still expect gales to develop across portions of
the central and srn California offshore waters by Tue night and
then continue into Fri. By late Thu and Fri the gales may also
extend N into the nrn California offshore waters. Current
warnings look reasonable and no changes should be needed on the
next forecast.
The nww3 looks to have a reasonable handle on the seas and will
be followed fairly closely during the forecast period.
The last few model cycles have trended stronger with low
pressure/cold front progged to cross the pz05 waters Tue. With
this in mind...felt it necessary to make mention of gales over
this region on Tue.
Cold front thru the pz05 waters attm and draped into the nrn
pz06 waters. Next cold front approaches tomorrow. As mentioned
earlier...think that a brief period of gales will occur in the
unstable caa behind the front/SW quadrant. At the same
time...intensifying trough along calif and building high to the
W of the pz06 waters will result in a prolonged period of gales
for most of that region. Otherwise...no other significant wx
expected.
The nww3 guidance looks reasonable and will be followed fairly
closely during the forecast period.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale Tue into Tue night...low
confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale Tue into Tue night...low
confdc.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...gale late Thu thru Fri...MDT confdc.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...Gale Tue night thru Fri...MDT to hi
confdc.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...Gale Tue night into
Fri...MDT to hi confdc.
